STEP 1

Theory of Change

Identify the big problem and potential solutions to solve it

A Theory of Change (ToC) shows how a desired change is expected, with all of the possible pathways leading to change, and why you think they lead to change.

When planning an initiative, theory can guide decisions about design and set up hypotheses to test over time.

PROGRAM EVALUATION

ADVOCACY EVALUATION

ToCs explain how and why a program is expected to work. They make the connection between programmers’ efforts and the outcomes and impact they hope to achieve, like improved health, enhanced education, economic empowerment, or quality of life.

Programming ToCs involve a broad analysis of the system that needs transformation, identifying and involving key actors, initial program design and strategic choices, and critical assumptions. They form the basis for adaptive management and monitoring, evaluation and learning during implementation.

common models FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION

Here are some of the most commonly used ToCs for program evaluation:

Social Ecological Model

Read Bronfenbrenner’s original article on the Social Ecological Model here. You can explore a helpful overview of the model here, and review an example from CDC Violence Prevention here.

Transtheoretical Model

Prochaska’s original article on the Transtheoretical Model can be accessed here. You can explore a helpful overview of the model here, and read how the model was used in a nutritional intervention study here.

Diffusion of Innovation

Read Rogers’ original work on Diffusion of Innovation here. Here’s a helpful overview of the model, and an article on how the model was used for vaccine behavior change.

COM-B Model

Michie’s original work on the COM-B Model is featured here. A helpful overview of the model is available here, and here’s an article on how the model was used to understand handwashing behaviors.

APPLIED THEORY OF CHANGE EXAMPLES

These organizations’ ToCs are strong examples of applying theory to programming:

ToCs focus on challenging the dominant power relations that stand in the way of things like improved health, enhanced education, economic empowerment, or quality of life.

Advocacy ToCs are typically focused on social movements and augmenting marginalized communities’ voices, reframing debates, shifting social norms, or improving policy. Progress is likely to be achieved through incremental and looping patterns rather than through a single linear change process. Many movements spend years building power and capacity, before achieving any concrete reforms or policies.

common models FOR ADVOCACY EVALUATION

Here are some of the most commonly used ToCs for advocacy evaluation:

Social Ecological Model

Read Bronfenbrenner’s original article on the Social Ecological Model here. You can explore a helpful overview of the model here, and review an example from CDC Violence Prevention here.

Diffusion of Innovation

Read Rogers’ original work on Diffusion of Innovation here. The ORS Impact brief provides both a summary and an example of Diffusion of Innovation in its section Tactical Theory 5.

Large Leaps

True, Jones, and Baumgartner’s original work on Large Leaps theory is available here. The ORS Impact brief provides both a summary and an example of Large Leaps theory in its section Global Theory 1.

Grassroots Theory

Read Alinksy’s original piece on Grassroots Theory here. The ORS Impact brief provides both a summary and an example of Grassroots theory in its section Tactical Theory 3.

Regime ToC

Stone’s original work on Regime Theory here. The ORS Impact brief provides both a summary and an example of Regime theory in its section Global Theory 5.

APPLIED THEORY OF CHANGE EXAMPLES

These organizations’ TOCs are strong examples of applying theory to advocacy:

STEP 1

Theory of Change

Identify the big problem and potential solutions to solve it

common models FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION

APPLIED THEORY OF CHANGE EXAMPLES

common models FOR ADVOCACY EVALUATION

APPLIED THEORY OF CHANGE EXAMPLES

Review other steps

STEP 2

Logic Model

STEP 3

Logframe